… Three demographic groups turbocharged Obama’s 7-percentage-point victory over John McCain in 2008: young voters ages 18-29, Latinos, and African-Americans. Their influx changed the composition of the electorate that year, making it look quite different from the makeup of voters in 2000 and 2004. Whether the 2012 electorate looks more […] Read more »
Democratic Convention A Chance to Sell Obamacare
The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has been making a modest comeback since the Supreme Court ruled in June that it is indeed constitutional. … But the true measure of the controversial health law’s standing, with Obama and the public, will be how it is handled at the Democratic National […] Read more »
Let’s Be Friends: Two Presidents find a mutual advantage
… [Bill] Clinton, [Jim] Messina told me, is one of the few people who can make the case for Obama among voters who still haven’t made up their minds. “They’re looking at this through an economic framework, and he’s going to be incredibly important to that discussion,” Messina said. He’s […] Read more »
National Conditions and Incumbency Model: Forecast
Now that I have final summer data from the Survey and Consumers I can generate a forecast from my National Conditions and Incumbency model. The gist of my model is that the incumbent presidential party is held accountable for prevailing national conditions but that the level of accountability depends upon […] Read more »
Mitt Romney’s Magic Number
Mitt Romney’s campaign has identified 38% as the “magic number” of Latino voters they need to secure victory over President Obama in the November election. This seems rather ambitious; John McCain earned 31% of the Latino vote in 2008, and Romney stands at a mere 26% ten weeks before the […] Read more »
Why Campaign Reporters Are Behind the Curve
… Over the last decade, almost entirely out of view, campaigns have modernized their techniques in such a way that nearly every member of the political press now lacks the specialized expertise to interpret what’s going on. Campaign professionals have developed a new conceptual framework for understanding what moves votes. […] Read more »