Since 1972, every single presidential candidate who has won the popular vote has also won the Catholic vote. But with Catholics making up one in every four voters, pinning down what exactly the Catholic vote is becomes tricky. [cont.] NPR Read more »
When it comes to polls, readers beware
As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican […] Read more »
Nate Silver: The polls aren’t wrong
We are drowning in polls and predictions. Whether it’s politics, sports, economics or even the weather, there’s more information and data than ever. But how much of it is white noise? How many of these predictions have rigor and mathematics behind them, and how many mask uncertainty or ideology behind […] Read more »
Can the Polls Be Trusted?
Here are some polling questions you’re not likely to be asked the next time the kitchen phone rings: Do you trust political polls or think they’re skewed for partisan gain? And how much time during this final stretch of the election do you plan to spend digging through the minutiae […] Read more »
Romney or Obama? Political scientists make their predictions
Are you ready to call the election? Mitt Romney certainly isn’t, nor for that matter is President Obama. But a few hardy academics have done so. Out now are a baker’s dozen forecasts produced by political scientists that predict the outcome in November. Polls give Obama the advantage, nationally and […] Read more »
YWCA Poll: Romney Faces a Formidable Gender Gap
What do women want? Another four years of President Obama, according to a new YWCA-sponsored poll that found him leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 31 percent. The yawning gender gap mirrors other surveys nationwide and here in Ohio, a hotly contested swing state, and it represents one […] Read more »