The road to a sustainable Democratic majority—nationally, locally, and in the states—must include much higher Democratic performance with white working-class voters (those without a four-year degree). Nearly every group in the progressive infrastructure is busy figuring out how Democrats can get back to the level of support they reached with […] Read more »
Just How Many Obama 2012-Trump 2016 Voters Were There?
In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many observers understandably focused on the numerous places that swung from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Because many of these areas congregated in swing states within the Rust Belt and Midwest, they played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, as shown […] Read more »
Has the Democratic Party Gotten Too Rich for Its Own Good?
During his primary campaign against Hillary Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, lived up to the grand Democratic tradition of favoring the underdog at the expense of the rich. … But Sanders spoke to the Democratic Party of 2016, not the Democratic Party of the Great Depression. … In […] Read more »
Black Voters Aren’t Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party
… Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It’s possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more […] Read more »
The owl of Minerva, part 2
One of the striking things about the 2016 election was that the gap between more and less educated voters became much bigger. Compared to the 2012 election, less educated voters shifted towards the Republican, more educated voters towards the Democrats. The American National Election Study asked about vote in 2012, […] Read more »
White Racial Resentment Before, During Obama Years
… Our recent analysis of several indicators of racial resentment before and during the Obama administration provides evidence that racial resentment decreased among the majority of white Americans during Obama’s presidency. Republicans were the only political group who did not decrease in racial resentment — but they did not increase significantly […] Read more »