… Of the 16 most recent national polls using live telephone interviewers calling both respondents with landlines and those with cell phones (between 30 and 40 percent of voters do not have landlines and cannot legally be called by robo-pollsters), one has the race even, two have Obama with a […] Read more »
Where’s the Beef?
… The debate is unlikely to solve all of Romney’s problems. … But the debate did two very important things for the challenger. First, it arrested the rush to judgment in much of the political community that Obama had effectively sealed the race. … Second, the evening delivered a powerful […] Read more »
Can We Believe the Presidential Polls?
… In the past 30 days, there were 91 national polls (including each Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking survey). Mr. Obama was at or above the magic number of 50% in just 20. His average was 47.9%. Mr. Romney’s was 45.5%. There were 40 national polls over the same period […] Read more »
Obama’s Lead Among Younger Millennials Widens to 16 Points
Young voters’ support for President Barack Obama has increased significantly since March, a new survey finds, widening to a 16-point advantage among younger Millennials (age 18-25) over Republican challenger Mitt Romney (55 percent vs. 39 percent). The Millennial Values and Voter Engagement survey is the second installment of a two-wave […] Read more »
The Predictive Value of Instant-Reaction Polls
… As I mentioned after the debate, I had not come across a study on the relationship between instant-reaction debate polls and the eventual effect on the horse race polls. So I decided to do a quick one myself. The chart below reflects the candidates that debate watchers deemed to […] Read more »
Latinos show big support for Obama policy
President Barack Obama’s decision to allow some young undocumented immigrants to defer deportation is very popular among Latinos, according to a CNN/ORC International poll released Thursday, pointing to one likely reason the president enjoys high support among the key voting demographic. [cont.] CNN Read more »