Predicting a presidential winner is one of America’s favorite pastimes in an election year. Pundits and bloggers rely on introspection and retrospection for their predictions. The politerati prognosticate at Aspen Institute round tables and in the Cambridge Journal. Pollsters crunch survey data to divine a victor. Everybody gets in on […] Read more »
2nd Debate Also a Ratings Hit, Drawing 65.6 Million At-Home Viewers
The second debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney reached nearly as many people as the first debate, according to Nielsen, reflecting robust and sustained interest in the presidential election three weeks before Election Day. [cont.] Brian Stelter, New York Times Read more »
Never mind that Gallup poll, but pay attention to Wisconsin
The question that has occupied my mind in the previous few weeks is whether the divide between the state and national polling can keep up. State polls had suggested that Mitt Romney has rough road to 270 electoral votes, while the national polls actually had him ahead of President Obama. […] Read more »
Women in Swing States Have Gender-Specific Priorities
Women in the 12 key swing states have starkly different responses from men when asked in an open-ended format to name the most important issues for their gender in the 2012 election. A plurality of female registered voters offered abortion (39%) as the most important issue for women, followed by […] Read more »
Do undecided voters still matter?
How much benefit President Obama will garner from his improved performance at Tuesday night’s second presidential debate could depend heavily on the answer to a second question: Who was it that moved to Mitt Romney’s side over the last two weeks? The often-heard answer to that question is that Romney’s […] Read more »
Obama’s racial penalty
Barack Obama has run his presidential races with an extra weight on his shoulders: being black. Sure, there are some pundits who claim that he benefits from his race – black loyalty, white guilt, and such – but serious scholars understand that his race has been, in net, a notable […] Read more »