… I don’t really trust voters to tell pollsters when they have made a decision. Much of our decision-making is essentially subconscious. Instead, I am going to assume that undecided voters will gravitate to the choice that their preexisting opinions would predict. This assumption is actually a well-known finding in research […] Read more »
Are the Polls Undercounting Latino Obama Backers?
If President Barack Obama loses big Eastern states like Florida and Ohio on November 6, Western swing states like Colorado and Nevada could help him hold on to the White House. Polls in Colorado and Nevada make the states look like anything but sure bets for the president, but there’s […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio
With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close. According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the […] Read more »
Why Don’t These Voters Decide? Some Like To Mull
Who are these people who still can’t make up their minds? … Persuadable voters are more likely to trust Romney to do a better job handling the economy and the federal budget deficit, the AP-GfK poll shows. And they’re about as comfortable with Romney as they are with Obama on foreign […] Read more »
The momentum behind a misleading narrative
… The notion that Romney still had “momentum” weeks after his early October gains in the polls has now been debunked by numerous commentators and academics. And while that pushback is increasingly reflected in campaign-trail accounts, it is worth taking a closer look at why coverage of Romney’s “momentum” went […] Read more »
2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008
The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004, according to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup’s likely voter sample since Oct. 1. Thus, key elements of President Obama’s electoral coalition, such as racial […] Read more »