Here are two more takes at it. First, courtesy of UNC Ph.D. student Brice Acree, takes my original plot and then adds an underlying measure of uncertainty—essentially, the margin of error for the estimated margin of victory. Second, spurred on by a friend who is also a pollster, I calculated […] Read more »
The Rise of the Quants in Political Prognostication
As President Barack Obama celebrated re-election, number-crunching geeks everywhere could revel in redemption. For months, political pundits and reporters said that the race between Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney was too close to call. Not so, insisted a new breed of political analysts who rejected intuition and relied instead on […] Read more »
Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win
… On Nov. 4, a group of senior campaign advisers agreed to describe their cutting-edge efforts with TIME on the condition that they not be named and that the information not be published until after the winner was declared. What they revealed as they pulled back the curtain was a […] Read more »
Election Result Proves a Victory for Pollsters and Other Data Devotees
It was not on any ballot, but one of the biggest election contests this week pitted pundits against pollsters. It was a pitched battle between two self-assured rivals: those who relied on an unscientific mixture of experience, anecdotal details and “Spidey sense,” and those who stuck to cold, hard numbers. […] Read more »
As Electorate Changes, Fresh Worry for G.O.P.
… The demographic changes in the American electorate have come with striking speed and have left many Republicans, who have not won as many electoral votes as Mr. Obama did on Tuesday in 24 years, concerned about their future. The Republicans’ Southern strategy, of appealing mostly to white voters, appears […] Read more »
Values, Not Demographics, Won the Election
Much of the coverage of Tuesday’s results has focused on the strength of Barack Obama’s coalition — minorities, women and young voters. But that analysis misses the real point. The contours of the 2012 presidential race were shaped less by the country’s changing demographics than by the underlying attitudes and […] Read more »