The venerated Gallup Poll took a beating this year for being such an outlier in its predictions of who would win the presidency, and the New York Times’s Nate Silver has now served up further evidence that the firm has lost its mojo. … What pollster nailed its predictions? A […] Read more »
GOP Grapples With Embarrassing Polling Failures
… Before Election Day, Republicans confidently predicted they would pick up seats in both chambers of Congress, and that Mitt Romney would win the White House. The results shattered those predictions, and with them any sense of security in the numbers coming out of some of the best-regarded polling firms […] Read more »
Young Voters in the 2012 Presidential Election
An estimated 23 million young Americans under the age of 30 voted in the 2012 presidential election which is on par with voting rates during the 2008 presidential election. CIRCLE estimates that youth voter turnout was 50 percent of those (18-to-29) eligible to vote. … This CIRCLE fact sheet summarizes […] Read more »
Americans Want Congress to Act on Jobs
Last week’s elections have left Americans more optimistic about the prospects of President Obama and Congress reaching agreement on the most important issues facing the federal government, according to a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll conducted ahead of the crucial lame-duck session beginning this week. … Americans have given […] Read more »
The real election and mandate
President Obama won an Electoral College landslide and a 3 or 4-point national victory – against the great odds posed by prolonged high unemployment, lack of income gains, a barely perceptible recovery and political gridlock that kept his job approval at just 50 percent at best. He won because he […] Read more »
Obama’s win shouldn’t be surprising
It’s both the most often repeated and ridiculously misleading statistic of campaign 2012: that no president since FDR has ever been reelected with unemployment over 7.2 percent. True, but no one bothers to explain that until Ronald Reagan won by an 18-point margin, capturing 49 states, despite being “weighed down” […] Read more »