… The GOP will have miscalculated the breadth of their challenge if they adopt immigration reform as their one-plank plan for recapturing the White House in 2016. The numbers illustrate the folly of relying too much on a Latino turnaround to produce a Republican victory. Obama leads the national popular […] Read more »
The Lessons of Defeat for the GOP
The GOP is undergoing the type of re-examination that occurs whenever a party loses. That useful exercise should be guided by facts. Here is some of what we know. The media’s postelection narrative is that Democrats won because of a demographic shift. There is some truth to that, but a […] Read more »
First Step Toward a Republican Revival: Acceptance
… Senior Romney advisers, echoed by conservative commentators, expected the electorate in 2012 to look more like 2004, when it was older and whiter and thus more evenly balanced between Republicans and Democrats. … Some pollsters, acting more like therapists, tried to comfort Republicans with surveys that unrealistically assumed an […] Read more »
More Evidence Regarding Importance of Economic Fundamentals in 2012 US Presidential Election
On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote for PS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate’s share in the most recent […] Read more »
Has the Emerging Democratic Majority Emerged?
… I will spare myself the furious replies from academics by stipulating there is no realignment going on. What is going on is a change, rooted mainly in demographics, that is making the traditional conservative formula obsolete. [cont.] Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine Read more »
Gay Vote Proved a Boon for Obama
While President Obama’s lopsided support among Latino and other minority voters has been a focus of postelection analysis, the overwhelming support he received from another growing demographic group — Americans who identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual — has received much less attention. But the backing Mr. Obama received from […] Read more »