… The inability of Southern Democrats to run well ahead of a deeply unpopular Mr. Obama raises questions about how an increasingly urban and culturally liberal national Democratic Party can compete in the staunchly conservative South. It raises serious doubts about whether a future Democratic presidential candidate, like Hillary Clinton, […] Read more »
No, That’s Not the Message Voters Sent Yesterday
… So, what are we to make of these results? To begin, it’s important to resist the inevitable tendency for pundits to overreach in their effort to discern “the message” the voters send yesterday. Already I am reading that the results indicate 1) a rejection of Obama, 2) a rejection […] Read more »
Did Republicans Conquer Obamaland?
… The lesson of the last decade in politics is not to over-interpret the results of any single election. The dominant trends in American politics were mostly reinforced yesterday: the country is increasingly polarized; the low-turnout midterm electorate benefits Republicans; the Senate will remain closely contested for the foreseeable future; […] Read more »
Why The Elephants Are Dancing: Understanding the November 2014 Election
Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama: On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65%) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track. The weekend before the election 64% […] Read more »
Shellacking 2: The Shellackening — Some Perspective
Just how big was the Republican sweep last night? As Hans suggests, we shouldn’t really examine any one election on its own. So let’s approach this with a bit of perspective. Here are some very tentative election results compared with their averages in midterm elections between 1950 and 2010: CONT. […] Read more »
Battle for the Senate: How the GOP did it
… From the outset of the campaign, Republicans had a simple plan: Don’t make mistakes, and make it all about Obama, Obama, Obama. Every new White House crisis would bring a new Republican ad. And every Democratic incumbent would be attacked relentlessly for voting with the president 97 or 98 […] Read more »