We lack the data to predict Nevada’s outcome. Be wary of pundits’ gut instincts.

… In a normal election, this lack of concrete information wouldn’t be a problem: Nobody ever died because they didn’t see enough Nevada polling. But primaries aren’t normal elections. The trajectory of the race is often influenced by media-created “expectations” and narratives about “momentum.” And in Nevada, many political pros […] Read more »

Las Vegas Debate Doesn’t Change Sanders’ Status as Democratic Frontrunner

Democratic voters have told us for months that beating President Trump is the most important issue for them in choosing a nominee. The best way for a candidate to show that they are a winner is by winning. And, Bernie Sanders has been winning. … All eyes are on Nevada […] Read more »