… Since the parties in 1972 decisively shifted authority for picking their presidential nominees from insiders to voters, the only reliable formula for success has been to win the Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary, or both, and to ride a wave of momentum into the larger states that follow. […] Read more »
The Primary Map Still Favors Clinton
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been under siege for months as additional revelations and developments regarding her use of a private email account continue to drip out. Last week, the Crystal Ball explored what might happen should Clinton drop out of the Democratic primary or, as the rumors […] Read more »
Bush and Trump face off in N.H. — and The Donald is winning
… In this first-in-the-nation primary state, tailor-made for a center-right, business-friendly, establishment-approved candidate, Bush is caught uncomfortably between the rising forces on his right and left. He has been unable to assert himself as the alpha candidate that many Republicans expected he would be. The dynamic here reflects the extent […] Read more »
The Most Important Story in the G.O.P. Race Isn’t About Donald Trump
Donald Trump is dominating the news media and the Internet. He is leading in the polls. But even as journalists scour those surveys for signs of whether his surge will last, an important story with the potential to decide the race is being overlooked. The Aug. 6 debate marked the […] Read more »
Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of the Bernie Sanders Surge
Vermont Sen. and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has had a good summer on the campaign trail. He’s drawing huge crowds at events across the country and a recent New Hampshire primary poll found him leading Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the Granite State. But the numbers suggest there are […] Read more »
Are the polls skewed?
Donald Trump is on top in Iowa, Ben Carson is hot on his heels, and Bernie Sanders has flown past Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. That’s the snapshot polls captured this week. It’s a far cry from the Bush-Clinton horse race that many had predicted going into the 2016 campaign […] Read more »