… Just as during the 2012 general election, state polls and national polls disagree. And our advice this year is the same as it was then: Trust the state polls. In fact, there’s evidence the national polls may be a negative indicator once you control for the state-level survey results. […] Read more »
Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts
You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »
CBS/YouGov online poll: Clinton leads in Iowa; Sanders leads in NH; Democrats like both
With less than two months before the official kick-off of the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton has an edge in Iowa, the nation’s first contest, and a big lead in South Carolina, where she is ahead of Sanders by two-to-one, while Bernie Sanders still leads in New Hampshire. Former Maryland […] Read more »
CBS/YouGov online poll: Ted Cruz leads in Iowa; Donald Trump stays atop NH, SC
Donald Trump, the national front-runner, keeps his big lead in two of the three early states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, but now Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has moved past Trump into a lead of his own in Iowa. CONT. CBS News Read more »
New Hampshire Will Weed Republican Field
The New Hampshire presidential primary vote usually breaks late. This time, not unusually, it will break a few candidates. … Voters can choose either party’s primary in New Hampshire, and knowledgeable Republicans suggest that a heavy influx of independents could help push a mainstream conservative to the top spot. There […] Read more »
New Hampshire remains a Sanders stronghold
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to hold a lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, the state set to host the nation’s first primary next February. The latest CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire’s likely Democratic primary voters tells a different story than that of national and Iowa polling, where Clinton […] Read more »