We here at FiveThirtyEight endorse the conventional wisdom, for a change. Like most other people covering the event, we thought that Marco Rubio had a really bad night in Saturday’s Republican debate, that the three Republican governors (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush and John Kasich) had a pretty good night, and […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s Aides See Path to New Hampshire Win
Hillary Clinton knows exactly what she needs to do to pull off a surprise victory in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, her advisers say. But it is not clear she has enough time — or enough voters open to hearing her message — to make it happen. With four […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Needs A Big Win In New Hampshire
Early primaries are often as much about expectations as they are about winning or losing. Just look at Marco Rubio, who has spun a third-place finish in Iowa on Monday into momentum in New Hampshire because he did better than most expected. That’s why I’m wondering how the press will […] Read more »
The Necessary Imperfection of Early Primary Polling
… For those shocked by the GOP results, take heart: Iowa is notoriously fickle, and not even top pollsters firmly predicted a win for Trump or Cruz, despite assumptions to the contrary. And it’d be wise to steel yourself for more unpredictability in the minutes, hours, and days leading up […] Read more »
Sanders, Trump Still Favored in New Hampshire
New Hampshire, as usual, will not be inclined to ratify the result of its early-state rival, Iowa. In open seat races, it’s natural for New Hampshire to zag after Iowa zigs: In the modern era of presidential nominations starting in 1972, there have been 16 contested presidential primaries (seven for […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa
Sometimes votes have clear outcomes and sometimes they don’t. Monday’s Iowa Democratic caucuses are an example of the latter. Hillary Clinton seems to have barely beaten Bernie Sanders in the closest Iowa Democratic caucus ever after holding a small lead in most Iowa polls before the caucuses. That means Iowa […] Read more »