… In every contested Democratic nomination race in this century, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has eventually won the nomination. That’s a measure of how much momentum candidates can earn, especially in this era of pervasive news coverage, from winning that kickoff contest. Conscious of that history, the leading […] Read more »
How ‘White Guilt’ in the Age of Trump Shapes the Democratic Primary
… For years, prospective Democratic nominees came to Iowa to talk ethanol and pork subsidies and saved any rhetoric about the injustice of racial profiling for crowds in South Carolina and Nevada — the only early voting states where black and Latino voters made up a significant portion of the […] Read more »
CBS News Battleground Tracker: Warren extends lead across early states, New Hampshire and draws even with Biden in Iowa
Early-state Democratic voters say President Trump’s allegations against Joe Biden have not affected their views of Biden and largely think they aren’t true. Even so, it’s Elizabeth Warren who continues to draw support from Democrats. She has extended the aggregate lead she had in this poll last month across the […] Read more »
Elizabeth Warren is rising everywhere
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign is, to quote NBA Jam, “on fire”. The latest Quinnipiac University national poll out today has Warren at 27% to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 25%. Now, one poll doesn’t mean much, and Quinnipiac’s result is well within the margin of error, so there’s […] Read more »
The Electoral College: Expanding the Map
Key Points• We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map.• While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end up […] Read more »
Biden’s challenge: Iowa and New Hampshire
Key Points• Perhaps the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the nominating calendar.• Biden is reliant on support from African Americans, but the electorates of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are almost entirely white. • However, even if one or more of Biden’s rivals best him in the […] Read more »