… For four decades, from 1968 to 2008, what was loosely described as the Republican establishment — the party’s congressional leaders, campaign operatives, donors, lobbyists and special interests — reigned supreme. Every four years, the party’s presidential nominee secured the establishment’s stamp of approval. Endorsements from governors and senators — […] Read more »
The Public, the Political System and American Democracy
At a time of growing stress on democracy around the world, Americans generally agree on democratic ideals and values that are important for the United States. But for the most part, they see the country falling well short in living up to these ideals, according to a new study of […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should Ted Cruz Actually Be Worried?
The first major public poll of the U.S. Senate race in Texas showed Republican incumbent Ted Cruz leading Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke by only 3 points. This week, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates whether there’s reason to believe that the race is actually that close. Fittingly, the crew also […] Read more »
AP: Updating our polling guidance
The 2018 AP Stylebook will include a new chapter on polls and surveys, adding details to help journalists report responsibly on public opinion research heading into the U.S. midterm elections. CONT. Lauren Easton, Associated Press Read more »
Time for better oversight of polling and online political communications
The Select Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media calls for a tighter oversight of opinion polling in the wake of polling failures in the 2015 general election, the EU referendum in 2016 and the 2017 general election. The Committee’s report also considers the impact of digital media on politics, […] Read more »
No One’s Talking About the New Tax Law
President Trump went to West Virginia this month to talk about tax cuts, but he got a bit distracted. He talked about China, the North American Free Trade Agreement, border security, “sanctuary cities” and states he won in 2016. Eventually he turned to his prepared comments on taxes. “This was […] Read more »