… The underestimation of Trump’s turnout and support in many places, after similar issues in 2016, has raised again questions about the reliance of campaigns, the press and the public on surveys to shape the race. That in turn has prompted new questioning of the bedrock principle among political strategists […] Read more »
Another Black Eye For Polling Industry, Media That Rely On It
Nearly all election polls forecasted a blue wave. But when that failed to materialize, pollsters looked foolish — and the news organizations they partner with lost credibility too. David Folkenflik, NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign […] Read more »
Bad polls, fake news, and that damned needle: Here’s how the media covered a twisty Election Night
That was quite a ride, wasn’t it? Or, rather, this election is quite a ride, given that it’s still going on. The quadrennial media rituals — “too early to call,” a sudden awareness of the nation’s counties, Steve Kornacki — all returned for the 2020 presidential election. As of Wednesday […] Read more »
Fox News Made a Big Call in Arizona, Buoying Biden and Angering Trump
It was just after 12:30 a.m. on election night, and Fox News was under fire. “Arnon, we’re getting a lot of incoming here, and we need you to answer some questions,” the network’s chief political anchor, Bret Baier, said pointedly. “Shoot!” Arnon Mishkin replied, his face breaking into a smile. […] Read more »
Outside the U.S., Biden is the clear favorite
In most of 24 countries surveyed, more would vote for Biden than for Trump in the U.S. presidential election and expect Biden to win it; but many are concerned about the impact of fake news. If people of 24 countries other than the United States could vote in the upcoming […] Read more »
How early and mail-in voting could affect when we learn the winner of the 2020 election
More Americans are casting their ballots early than ever before. If that correlates with higher turnout overall — and polling suggests it will — it will be good for democracy. The higher early voting could also, however, very much affect when we’ll know the winner in key swing states and […] Read more »