The moment it became clear House Majority Leader Eric Cantor would suffer a shocking primary loss to David Brat, reporters began speculating about what the result would mean for Republican candidates across the country. Bob [Garfield] talks with North Star Opinion Research President Whit Ayers who says the media is […] Read more »
The Political Media Still Fall for the Hot-Hand Fallacy
The most important lesson of the 2012 presidential campaign, in my view, was not that polling-based models are foolproof ways to assess the political environment, but instead that undisciplined ways of evaluating polls and political events can lead to flawed conclusions. On several occasions during the race, news media commentators […] Read more »
The Dangers of Sticking to a Story Line
At a recent lecture at his alma mater, Georgetown University, former President Clinton aired a complaint previously heard from various press secretaries and communications directors. “If a policymaker is a political leader and is covered primarily by the political press, there is a craving that borders on addictive to have […] Read more »
Media Slant: A Question of Cause and Effect
Consumers of the news, both from television and print, sometimes feel that they are getting not just the facts but also a sizable dose of ideological spin. Yet have you ever wondered about the root cause of the varying political slants of different media outlets? That is precisely the question […] Read more »
Americans believe two things about Obamacare enrollment that can’t both be true
The most recent Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll had some good news and some bad news for Obamacare. The good news was that a plurality of Americans know the law signed up 8 million people. The bad news is that a majority of Americans nevertheless think the law fell way […] Read more »
Why wouldn’t people want to reduce inequality?
… Political scientists Kenneth Scheve and David Stasavage offer four reasons here for why democracy has not saved us from inequality. They end with the one to which they appear to give the most credence: mass opinion. In short, for democracy to reduce inequality, it must be the case that […] Read more »