Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map

Key Points • Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. • Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a […] Read more »

Democrats extend their dominance of the suburbs, with an eye to 2020

New flashes of Democratic electoral strength Tuesday from the outskirts of Memphis, Cincinnati and Philadelphia to the neighborhoods of Northern Virginia marked an advancement of the party’s dominance across America’s fast-changing suburbs. The results underscored the profound electoral realignment that has been unfolding since President Trump’s ascent upended the nation’s […] Read more »

Density Increasingly Decides State Elections, Too

Tuesday’s election results show how America is continuing to polarize along an urban-rural continuum. But it’s not playing out the same everywhere. Voters on Tuesday gave Democrats a resounding victory in races for Virginia’s general assembly, a narrow victory in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election, and a defeat in Mississippi’s gubernatorial race. […] Read more »

Trump and Republicans have a suburban problem

President Donald Trump’s Republican Party has a suburban problem, and it’s not clear that they know what to do about it. As urban areas become more Democratic leaning and rural areas move to the right, the suburbs are likely going to be where the 2020 election is decided. Tuesday’s elections […] Read more »

Suburban revolt boosts Democrats on Election Day in the age of Trump

The revenge of the suburbs continues in the age of President Donald Trump. On yet another Election Day, the president’s disruptive style and conservative policy pushes brought a clearly identifiable backlash. … The results serve as a counterweight to the unquestioned popularity of Trump inside a large swatch of his […] Read more »