… While the last time New Hampshire went red was in 2000, it still represents one of the Clinton campaign’s most perplexing challenges. The reason is that, while Sanders may now stand behind the Democratic presidential nominee, not all his supporters have followed, which may explain why Clinton has invited […] Read more »
Where Marco Rubio Has the Best Chance to Win
Can Marco Rubio win a state on Super Tuesday? It’s not an especially high bar — after all, there are 12 for him to choose from. But he hasn’t won a state yet, and a win would quell the complaints that he hasn’t. The good news for him is that […] Read more »
A Midwest Advantage for Scott Walker?
You can call it the Rust Belt or the Industrial Midwest if you like, but when presidential election time comes you should call it precious real estate. The seven states that hold the schools that comprised the old, pre-expansion Big Ten athletic conference – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio […] Read more »
Right vs. Left in the Midwest
Minnesota and Wisconsin share much more than bone-chilling winters: German and Northern European roots; farming; and, until recently, a populist progressive tradition stretching back a century to Wisconsin’s Fighting Bob La Follette and the birth of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. But in 2010 these cousin states diverged. By doing so they […] Read more »
Wisconsin and Minnesota — governments next-door going in opposite directions
Politically speaking, Wisconsin and Minnesota are practically twins. They have voted the same way in the last seven presidential contests. They gave President Obama almost identical victory margins last fall. They share a common border, a common heritage, and the highest election turnouts in America. Yet based on how they are being governed, […] Read more »
Bachmann’s Retirement Reduces Electoral Risk for G.O.P.
Some Democrats are giddy that the Tea Party provocateur and four-term incumbent Michele Bachmann has announced her intention to retire from Congress — but her decision may allow Republicans to avoid a toss-up race in what would otherwise be a reasonably safe district for the G.O.P. [cont.] Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight […] Read more »