… Nationally, about 100 counties voted Democratic in at least five consecutive presidential elections and then flipped to Trump. Almost half of them are in four states in the Upper Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Most of those nearly four dozen counties in the region are along or adjacent […] Read more »
Democrats in Rust Belt: Stay Close to Trump, but Not Too Close
A day after the first major primary contests of 2018, the political armies on the left and the right repositioned themselves for an intense general election across Rust Belt states that President Trump carried two years ago — and where his personality and record will define the battles leading to […] Read more »
Why the electoral battlefield is expanding
Two recent polls indicating surprising Democratic strength in Senate races across the Southwest underscore how the parties’ shifting demographic and geographic bases of support are widening the electoral battlefield. The surveys, which point to strong Democratic opportunities to capture Republican-held Senate seats in Arizona and Texas, might prove to be […] Read more »
Farmers’ Anger at Trump Tariffs Puts Republican Candidates in a Bind
As President Trump moves to fulfill one of the central promises of his campaign — to get tough on an ascendant China — he faces a potential rebellion from a core constituency: farmers and other agricultural producers who could suffer devastating losses in a trade war. … While the battle […] Read more »
For Trump And The GOP: Warning Signs in the Middle Suburbs
Donald Trump’s road to the White House was complicated, but it went directly through the Middle Suburbs, a collection of blue-collar suburban counties heavily based in the Industrial Midwest. Now a combination of polling data and election results suggests those communities have lost their enthusiasm for President Trump and Republicans. […] Read more »
White Women in the Rustbelt Are Turning on Trump
A massive new measure of state-by-state attitudes toward Donald Trump offers important clues about the pressure points that could tip the 2018 elections. Last week, Gallup released Trump’s average approval rating in all 50 states in 2017, based on more than 171,000 survey interviews it conducted over the course of […] Read more »