… As the impeachment process heats up in Washington, Donald Trump is seeing a boost in support in crucial swing states. Across the board, President Trump is polling well against the Democratic field in each of these battleground states. Notably, Vice President Biden has seen a sharp decline in support […] Read more »
As Candidates Jostle for Position, a Long Race May Become a Marathon
With just under two months until the Iowa caucuses, the already-volatile Democratic presidential race has grown even more unsettled, setting the stage for a marathon nominating contest between the party’s moderate and liberal factions. … The contenders have recently begun to attack one another more forcefully — Ms. Warren, a […] Read more »
Don’t Bet Against Bloomberg
The more I think about Michael Bloomberg’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, the more I wonder whether the political cognoscenti are underestimating his chances of winning. … While there are legitimate arguments to be made against Bloomberg, there are equally persuasive arguments against each of his rivals. If polling […] Read more »
Why Bloomberg’s Money is Unlikely to Impact the Race
If you have read what political scientists have to say about the relationship between campaign contributions and elections, you probably know that the answer is “it’s complicated.” But with presidential nominations, it is especially unlikely that having the most campaign money will matter. When billionaire Michael Bloomberg announced that he […] Read more »
How Michael Bloomberg’s Late Bid For The Democratic Nomination Could Go
… As I wrote two weeks ago, when we first learned Bloomberg was (re)considering a campaign, he is jumping into a race that has no room for him. … And as I wrote one week ago, Bloomberg’s polling numbers have been uninspiring since pollsters started adding him to their 2020 […] Read more »
Delusions of Grandeur?
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is testing the 2020 waters. What are his chances of securing the Democratic nomination? Hear our analysis. And, Gallup released new numbers about voter enthusiasm heading into 2020. What it means (and doesn’t mean) for voter […] Read more »