This week, we deep-dive into the results from the New Hampshire primary. Then, as the campaigns go west, we get Harry’s Forecast for Nevada. Plus, we discuss Mike Bloomberg’s rise in recent polls, along with the renewed scrutiny from his time as New York City mayor. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Failures of Punditry (and Polls)
Last month I wrote what I called my New Year’s “irresolutions” – a set of observations on the Democratic field that I cloaked in uncertainty. I promised to come back and identify those that were wrong. There are two standouts in that regard: (1) Joe Biden’s staying power is far […] Read more »
A contested convention looks even more possible after New Hampshire
The 2020 New Hampshire primary is in the books, and one of the messiest primaries in recent history seemingly got even messier. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders did win as expected. He remains the national front runner in polling and fundraising. But Sanders got just 26% of the vote and finished […] Read more »
The Moderate Pileup, and the Sanders Path to the Nomination
The results of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests amount to a strategic victory for Bernie Sanders, fracturing his opposition and opening a path for him to win the nomination. But the results do not leave him in a dominant position. His support in national polls remains in the low-to-mid […] Read more »
Sanders Won The New Hampshire Vote. So How Did ‘Klobucharge’ Win The Narrative?
In a late night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacted to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s win in the New Hampshire primary. They also looked at the parts of the electorate that powered Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar to strong second and third place finishes, respectively, and asked […] Read more »
Democrats now face a fractured and divisive contest for the nomination
Democrats braced themselves Tuesday night for a long and divisive contest for their party’s presidential nomination after New Hampshire voters added new uncertainty to a race already scrambled by last week’s caucuses in Iowa. … The likely prospect now is that Sanders and several other candidates will divide the vote […] Read more »