… In Michigan, Pennsylvania and, to a lesser extent, Wisconsin, an affinity for Trump’s message of economic populism and nationalism has surprised many Democrats. These are big, industrial states they have carried for the past three decades — and where Clinton, so far, has not fully focused. … Particularly striking […] Read more »
Trump’s Path Runs Through the Rust Belt
If there is a path to the White House for Donald Trump, it almost certainly will follow roads like Interstate 75, 80, and 94 that rumble through the big battleground states across the Rust Belt. Large Rust Belt prizes such as Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would be indispensable […] Read more »
Tuesday Primaries Changed Everything and Nothing at All
The results of Tuesday’s primary contests brought us some surprises – a Bernie win, a Rubio collapse and a Trump romp. But, it didn’t fundamentally alter the trajectory of this campaign. Hillary Clinton, barring some sort of epic collapse over the next few weeks, is going to be the Democratic […] Read more »
Why the polls totally underestimated Bernie Sanders in Michigan
Last night, Bernie Sanders pulled off a stunning upset in Michigan that almost no one expected — after all, he had been trailing by more than 20 points in much of the polling mere days before. Why were the polls so wrong? CONT. Jeff Stein, Vox Read more »
Bernie Sanders’s Win in Michigan Changes Race but Not Probabilities
… Bernie Sanders managed to defeat Hillary Clinton by two percentage points in Michigan on Tuesday night, even though he trailed by at least 11 percentage points in every survey, and even though the demographics pointed toward a significant, if relatively smaller, advantage for Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Sanders’s win is […] Read more »
Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders’s Michigan Upset
If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. […] Read more »