This paper addresses how measurements of cognitive skill differ based on survey mode, from a face-to-face interview to a self-completed survey, using the Wordsum vocabulary test found in the General Social Survey. CONT. Andrew Gooch (UCLA), Research & Politics Read more »
Many Republican Polls Are Measuring a Unicorn Electorate
… The first problem with trying to measure the attitudes of a target population of the national Republican primary electorate is that such an electorate does not actually exist in the quite the same way that other electorates do. The presidential nominating process is a dynamic one, with primaries and […] Read more »
What Trump bump?
Judging from a spate of recent polls, Donald Trump is riding a wave of popular support. But if you ask Republican campaign pollsters and other political consultants, it’s just a mirage, nothing more than a reflection of faulty public polling about how actual Republican primary voters feel about Trump and […] Read more »
Why Donald Trump May Be Weaker Than a Recent Poll Suggests
No matter the subject, for surveys to make sense, they have to be sampling the correct population. … So, with Sunday’s NBC News/Marist University polls in Iowa and New Hampshire igniting a flood of news coverage highlighting Donald Trump’s “surge” (Politico) and “strong” showing (NBC and the New York Times), […] Read more »
The Polling Paradox: How to Read the Numbers
Do you believe, as the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed this week, that Hillary Clinton is beating Jeb Bush nationally by a margin of 10 percentage points (51 percent to 41 percent)? Do you believe, as the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday on a set of battleground states showed, that […] Read more »
Everything you ever wanted to know about how Washington Post polling works
Every few months, the Washington Post (in partnership with ABC News) offers the world a brand new bit of insight. This week, it was that Donald Trump leads the Republican field seeking the party’s presidential nomination, a result that likely prompted more than a few people to wonder, How did […] Read more »