Survey research is rapidly moving online – it’s cheaper, faster, provides greater flexibility in questionnaire design, and often has substantial advantages in data quality compared with phone surveys. … Surveys that include only those who use the internet (and are willing to take surveys online) run the risk of producing […] Read more »
The heyday of political polls has long passed
… What was true of Giuliani’s popularity early in the 2008 cycle was true of Howard Dean’s at the same stage in the 2004 cycle. It was true of Rick Perry’s, Newt Gingrich’s, and Herman Cain’s early in the 2012 cycle. Anyone can be the “front-runner” in an election most […] Read more »
Memo to MSM Bloviators: Get a Clue About Polling
… Given their desperate 24-hour scramble for fresh “content,” we don’t expect the mainstream media or the online alternate outlets to adopt serious standards about polls or intellectual honesty in reporting them. But as loyal readers know, you can rely on Calbuzz to shed some light from time to time. […] Read more »
Polling’s ‘spectacular disasters’
Former Hewlett-Packard boss Carly Fiorina is expected to make the main GOP debate on September 16, after CNN tweaked its selection criteria. It blamed a lack of recent high-quality polls of the 17 Republicans running for president. That speaks to the disruption in the business of polling, where track records […] Read more »
Here’s why you should worry about the polls for the 2016 U.S. elections — and beyond
We rely on opinion polls, not just to get a line on the horse race that is the presidential election campaign, but also to learn what Americans (and people in other countries) think about important issues. As George Gallup said many decades ago, polling is central to modern democracy. But […] Read more »
There’s Evidence That Trump’s Polling Support Is Overstated
Ever since Donald Trump has risen to the top of the polls, Republican strategists have questioned whether those polls might be overestimating his support. There is evidence to support that theory. … The public polls can be misleading if nonvoting adults have substantially different views from primary voters. Usually, the […] Read more »