Does Donald Trump lead the race for the Republican presidential nomination? Or does he lead it by a “yuuuuuge” margin? Bloomberg recently released a poll that gave Trump 24 percent to Ben Carson’s 20 percent. On the same day, Ipsos released a poll that put Trump at 37 percent to […] Read more »
Online Polls Are Rising. So Are Concerns About Their Results.
… Ready or not, online polling has arrived. Political analysts and casual poll readers now face a deluge of data from new firms employing new, promising, but not always proven methodologies. Nowhere is the question of the accuracy of the new online polls more evident than in the survey results […] Read more »
What do UK Muslims really think about terrorism?
On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran speaks to Tom Mludzinski of ComRes about the firm’s polling among British Muslims earlier this year before speaking with Maria Sobolewska from the University of Manchester about her work looking at Muslim public opinion in the UK on terrorism and other […] Read more »
SurveyMonkey Fills the Gap as Traditional Political Polls Flounder
… After long rejecting online polls as a cheaper alternative, pollsters are thinking again, prompted by SurveyMonkey’s success. “The field has had a significant change of attitude about this from one of ‘No way’ to ‘Well, let’s take a look,’” says Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew, who […] Read more »
Iowa’s Ann Selzer on what journalists need to know about polling
… Ann Selzer, director of the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, has been in the field for nearly three decades, beginning as an in-house pollster at the Register in the 1980s before launching her own public-opinion firm in the early ’90s. … Selzer spoke by phone with CJR from […] Read more »
The Benefits of Random Probability Sampling: The 2015 British Election Study Face-to-Face
This post reveals the BES 2015 vote intention figures for the face-to-face survey and discusses them in the context of representativeness achieved via random probability sampling and efforts to interview hard-to-reach respondents. … Unlike almost every other pre- and post-election survey (including our own internet panel), the reported vote in […] Read more »