Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.” Who […] Read more »
Ann Selzer’s secret sauce
At a time when trust in public polling has eroded after high-profile failures in elections across the country and around the globe, people in Iowa still have faith that one woman can accurately measure where things stand in next year’s volatile caucuses. That woman, J. Ann Selzer, has predicted election […] Read more »
Polls offer a snapshot, but not always reliable predictions
Early polling often doesn’t reflect who goes on to become president (think Howard Dean or Newt Gingrich). These days pollsters acknowledge they are wrestling with a sea change in polling methods that’s making it harder to collect a sample opinion of Americans. Judy Woodruff reports as part of a collaboration […] Read more »
The Polls May Be Underestimating Trump’s Support
Donald Trump’s persistent lead in the GOP presidential-preference polls has been a great source of confusion for the chattering classes. But Trump is actually just the latest manifestation of a more global trend: Data suggests the appeal of anti-immigrant policies to working-class voters is much deeper than most American elites […] Read more »
Trump factor fuels debate about value of ‘horse race’ polls in election cycle
… In recent days, debate has raged most fiercely around Donald Trump. One group of pundits point to exaggerated polling as the explanation for his temporarily dominant lead in the Republican primary race. Other commentators suggest this ignores genuine momentum behind his campaign that has lasted months longer than anyone […] Read more »
Don’t Buy Trump’s Big Lead
The latest CNN/ORC poll has captured a tremendous amount of attention because real estate mogul Donald Trump has hit a polling high of 36 percent. … When you examine the poll, which was taken from Nov. 27 through Dec. 1, 2015 (which was a holiday weekend and is problematical all […] Read more »