Why should I believe what a poll says ever again? It is one of those questions that guarantees applause on Question Time. It is normally asked, according to polls compiler Anthony Wells, by “a middle-aged man, who looks very pleased with himself afterwards and folds his arms with his hands […] Read more »
UK: Alarmingly for pollsters, EU referendum poll results depend heavily on methods
One event is set to loom above all others in this new political year: the EU referendum. It is an opportunity for pollsters to redeem themselves after their failure to predict the result of 2015’s UK general election but, as things stand, they are giving very mixed signals. CONT. Tom […] Read more »
How Is the Economy Doing? It May Depend on Your Party, and $1
… It turns out that the partisan bias in how people answer factual questions about the economy is diminished by this one weird trick: Pay people. That is a conclusion reached in two new papers in The Quarterly Journal of Political Science, one from four scholars led by John G. […] Read more »
Will UK pollsters redeem themselves in 2016?
… In the event, the final 2015 election campaign polls from nine polling companies resulted in three giving Labour leads, three offering a dead heat and three suggesting Conservative leads – two registering one-point leads and the other a lead of three points – far below the eventual seven-point gap. […] Read more »
Harry’s Guide To 2016 Election Polls
WNYC’s “On The Media” has a great series called the “Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook,” and as part of our ongoing partnership with them, we put together a handy list of rules for interpreting election polls. Listen to the whole episode, or just to my dulcet tones: [audio] But I also […] Read more »
Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook: Election Polls Edition
… This week, our partnership with the data news site FiveThirtyEight continues with another edition of the Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook. This time: Election Polls Edition. CONT. On The Media Read more »