Poll Watcher Season is upon us big time. And, with it comes both the good and the bad. Each election cycle resurrects some oldies about the failings of public polls and typically ushers in a few new critiques. Expect 2016 to follow the same pattern. In an attempt to shed […] Read more »
Why the ‘likely voter’ is the holy grail of polling
What are the chances you will vote in the 2016 general election? Did you vote in the 2012 presidential election? These are the questions pollsters often use to identify “likely voters,” perhaps the most ubiquitous and least-understood phrase in election news — and for two big reasons: CONT. Scott Clement, […] Read more »
Why Polls Have Been Wrong Recently
The polling industry has been hit hard by high-profile misfires in recent years. … But exactly why the polls err often remains a mystery. Potential sources for error abound: The initial samples could be biased, the likely-voter models may not reflect the actual electorate, or voters could make last-minute decisions that […] Read more »
Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
… This study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter. It then compares the relative effectiveness of each approach in describing the electorate and measuring the division of the vote between parties in the 2014 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Pollsters would like to have a crystal […] Read more »
Pew Research Center will call 75% cellphones for surveys in 2016
Pew Research Center will increase the percentage of respondents interviewed on cellphones from 65% to 75% in most of its 2016 telephone surveys. We’re making this change to ensure our survey samples properly represent the now roughly half (47%) of U.S. adults whose only phone is a cellphone. CONT. Kyley […] Read more »
Predicted Market Research Trends for 2016
What trends should market researchers expect in 2016? To find out, we asked a variety of executives and thought leaders to share their predictions for the coming year. Our sources include industry veterans at established firms, as well as a number of innovative entrepreneurs. CONT. Sarah Schmidt, MarketResearch.com Read more »