Danielle Kurtzleben speaks with Patrick Murray, director of the Polling Institute at Monmouth University, about the future of election polls after their recent failures to predict results. NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
What Democrats and Pollsters Missed in New Jersey One of the state’s top experts gets candid.
So what just happened in New Jersey? After incumbent Democratic governor Phil Murphy scraped his way to reelection by less than two points on Tuesday, the question is top of mind not just in his state but for his party around the country. On one level, the answer is obvious: […] Read more »
Pollster: ‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.
I blew it. The final Monmouth University Poll margin did not provide an accurate picture of the state of the governor’s race. So, if you are a Republican who believes the polls cost Ciattarelli an upset victory or a Democrat who feels we lulled your base into complacency, feel free […] Read more »
How the phone call is disappearing from our lives and polling
… It used to be that polls I wrote about were conducted all by phone with live interviewers calling landlines. That’s no longer the case. A majority of Americans no longer have landlines. As a millennial, I am one of those Americans who only own cell phones. Pollsters still call […] Read more »
Pollsters: The Discoverers and Guardians of Public Opinion
This episode focuses on the art and science of measuring public opinion. We discuss the challenges pollsters face when trying to predict how public opinion may change over time, review both the innovative and time-tested methods of polling and discover which recent polls have revealed the most surprising data. Our […] Read more »
Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California Recall
The political arm of the public-opinion industry famously had a tough election cycle in 2020. Nobody much noticed when polls of primaries went awry after the COVID pandemic struck; we were in unchartered territory when it came to understanding the likelihood to vote or even how to contact voters. But […] Read more »