New Yorker writer Jill Lepore examines the history of polling in America. She tells Fresh Air’s Terry Gross that today’s polls may be less reliable — and more influential — than ever before. Fresh Air Read more »
Why U.S. Latinos Are Difficult to Poll
It is not easy to accurately poll any population, but Latinos in the U.S. appear to pose specific challenges. “There is an art and a science to polling in Latino communities,” says Lourdes Torres, the director of special projects at Univision, a the Spanish-language network, which is also known for […] Read more »
The Necessary Imperfection of Early Primary Polling
… For those shocked by the GOP results, take heart: Iowa is notoriously fickle, and not even top pollsters firmly predicted a win for Trump or Cruz, despite assumptions to the contrary. And it’d be wise to steel yourself for more unpredictability in the minutes, hours, and days leading up […] Read more »
Iowa Teaches Pollsters To Poll Until The End
Most Iowa polls showed Donald Trump winning the state’s Republican caucuses. He didn’t. Some Iowa polls showed Hillary Clinton winning Iowa easily. She didn’t. It’s notoriously hard to poll Iowa, but what can pollsters learn from Monday night’s results to improve their work over the next few months — and […] Read more »
After polling shock, Ann Selzer happy to be the ‘silver standard’ in Iowa
The 2016 Iowa caucuses were more polled, more frequently, than any previous contest. Starting in November, there were multiple weekly looks at the Iowa electorate, many of them earning bright red chyrons on cable news. But there was only one Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll — and only one Ann […] Read more »
Polls Were Way Off on Donald Trump. Here’s What It Means.
Donald Trump was at the top of each of the last 10 polls in Iowa, but his lead failed to hold up on caucus night Monday. In the end, his seven-point lead in polling averages amounted to a three-point loss to Ted Cruz. That 10-point swing was enough to make […] Read more »