What are the most important issues in a political campaign? As Donald Trump has risen to the top of the Republican primary field, pundits have speculated especially on what motivates his supporters, and what it may mean for the future of American politics. Pollsters are certainly interested in this as […] Read more »
How exit polls work
… When polls closed in New York on Tuesday, exit poll estimates showed Bernie Sanders trailing Hillary Clinton by only four points. That eventually got adjusted, but it was the most recent example of a poll showing a number that ended up being way off the final result. To figure […] Read more »
Do Americans Really Want Merrick Garland Confirmed to the Supreme Court?
In the aftermath of President Obama’s nomination of Appellate Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court, several polls – conducted immediately after the announcement – suggested Americans were highly favorable to his being confirmed by the U.S. Senate. But a new iMediaEthics PollCheck survey suggests these polls were highly misleading, […] Read more »
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
… Asking people who they are going to vote for is one thing; understanding why is another. Polls and surveys give valuable hints, but they often fail to explain results on Election Day, let alone predict them. Now a group of researchers think that economic theory might point the way […] Read more »
British Polling Council Inquiry Report
The British Polling Council welcomes the publication today of the report of the Independent Inquiry into the performance of the polls in the May 2015 general election. … The principal objective of the Council is to promote transparency in the reporting of opinion polls, and its members are required to […] Read more »
When surveys are really bad
We dissect the failings of political pollsters at length — and there’s much to criticize. However, those of us in politics face a test each Election Day. We’re either right or wrong, and because some of our surveys become public, folks know it. … Commercial market researchers face no similar […] Read more »