To the Editor: In “Stop the Polling Insanity” (Op-Ed, May 20), Norman Ornstein and Alan I. Abramowitz cited the Reuters/Ipsos poll as Exhibit A in an indictment of “cringeworthy” polling-based articles. Their swipe at us is based on a flawed argument. CONT. Maurice Tamman (Reuters), New York Times Read more »
Disentangling Attitudes Toward Transgender Bathroom Use
One of the trickiest aspects of assessing American public opinion is measuring views on a new or complex issue that has not been thoroughly considered by the public. In these situations, there are no historical trends to provide context, and the public is more likely to respond in terms of […] Read more »
Trump Supporters Probably Aren’t Lying To Pollsters
Could the polls be underestimating Donald Trump’s support? That’s the conclusion of what I’ll call the “shy Trump-ers” theory, which holds that public opinion surveys undersell Trump because some of his supporters are unwilling to admit they’re backing The Donald. CONT. Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Stop the Polling Insanity
Over the past few weeks, cable news networks and other media sites have trumpeted wild fluctuations and surprising results in polling on the presumed general-election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton. … In this highly charged election, it’s no surprise that the news media see every poll like […] Read more »
Oregon: Why The Presidential Primary Poll Was Off
Last week, a poll commissioned by OPB and Fox 12 suggested very different results in the Oregon presidential primary than what actually happened when ballots were counted Tuesday. … John Horvick of the polling firm, DHM Research, joined Think Out Loud Wednesday to discuss the poll and the actual results […] Read more »
Is Traditional Polling Underselling Donald Trump’s True Strength?
… So far this year, live-interview telephone surveys have tended to show Mrs. Clinton leading by a slightly larger margin than those conducted online. There hasn’t been a live-interview telephone survey since Mr. Trump beat back all his rivals early this month. So Mrs. Clinton’s seeming lead has seemed to […] Read more »