It sounds like a riddle of sorts: Is one giant poll of all 50 states the same thing as 50 small polls, one for each state, added together? If this seems like an odd question, it’s because it hadn’t really come up before this year. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight See […] Read more »
Trump’s Main November Foe Isn’t Clinton, It’s Demographic Change
To win the White House, Donald Trump may need to turn back the clock and make the American electorate look more like it did in 2004 than in 2012. … So, why are so many polls close right now? One reason: Some pollsters foresee working-class whites making up a larger […] Read more »
Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election
… When we launched our general election forecasts in late June, there wasn’t a big difference in the results we were getting from polls using traditional methodologies and polls using newer techniques. Now, it’s pretty clear that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is wider in live-telephone surveys than it […] Read more »
Per his campaign manager, Donald Trump is relying on easily frightened voters who might not vote
… In an interview with the Britain’s Channel 4 reported by the Guardian, Donald Trump’s still relatively new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, offered her explanation for why polling that shows Trump trailing badly is wrong — and why she’s convinced that the campaign will nonetheless win. Her explanations did not […] Read more »
Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!
I’m tired of hearing about the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll. I’m tired of hearing about the poll from Donald Trump fans such as Reince Priebus, Matt Drudge and Donald Trump himself. They frequently cherry-pick that poll because it consistently shows much better results for Trump than the other […] Read more »
Poll conspiracy theorists target Monmouth’s Patrick Murray
During the Republican presidential primary, frontrunner Donald Trump referred to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray as “highly respected.” Trump’s supporters apparently now don’t feel the same way. After weeks of Trump’s supporters promulgating conspiracy theories that pollsters have been rigging their results to boost Clinton, legions of Trump fans on […] Read more »