Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 17 percentage points in the race for California’s 55 electoral votes, down from 24 points in July, while Kamala Harris has expanded her lead over Loretta Sanchez in the U.S. Senate race to 22 percentage points, up from 15 points in the same time […] Read more »
We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.
… Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come up with two very different results. How so? Because pollsters make a series of decisions when designing their survey, from […] Read more »
The Bloomberg Politics Poll Decoder
As Election Day nears, we’re being deluged with public opinion polls attempting to measure whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump is on track to win the White House. It’s hard to know what to make of the numbers because the polls often tell very different stories. These discrepancies start to […] Read more »
Introducing the New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll
On Monday, The Upshot and Siena College will release their first survey of likely voters in Florida. It’s a little different from most polls sponsored by major media organizations. Most such surveys contact voters by dialing random telephone numbers. The New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll was conducted using Florida […] Read more »
What AP learned about using online surveys to measure support for presidential candidates
… The AP earlier this year commissioned an experiment to see if an online, probability-based survey could estimate candidate support among both advance and Election Day voters more accurately than the combined exit poll of Election Day voters and telephone poll of advance voters. That’s the dual, and increasingly costly, […] Read more »
MRP will lead to explosion of 50 state polls
There have been rash of 50-state polls coming out recently: Survey Monkey (with the Washington Post), Ipsos (with Reuters), and Morning Consult all released polls within the week. For the sake of this article think of polling as a two-step process, researchers: collect responses from a sample of the population […] Read more »