Donald Trump’s supporters have taken up the claim that polls are rigged in favor of Hillary Clinton because they “oversample” Democrats. The charge is based on emails published by Wikileaks, in which the 2008 Clinton campaign considers oversampling Hispanic and Native American voters. Micah Cohen of FiveThirtyEight says the claim […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s favorite pollsters
When Donald Trump insists that he’s winning the presidential election, sometimes he’s correct. He’s simply cherry-picking the three daily tracking polls that have him jockeying with Hillary Clinton for the lead. While the bulk of other polling shows Clinton building a significant advantage, the three polls reflect a vastly different […] Read more »
The Clinton Polling Conspiracy That Doesn’t Exist
Late last night, pro-Trump Twitter lit up with excited chatter. Donald Trump is falling fast in the polls, sliding through a month-long decline most statisticians would say is a result of him being, you know, unpopular. … But one blogger had another theory: Polling organizations are deliberately interviewing more Democrats […] Read more »
Very bad analysis of a 2008 email is Donald Trump’s new excuse for why he’s losing
Earlier Monday morning, Matt Drudge’s Drudge Report (which has become a centralized resource of Donald Trump-friendly stories) highlighted a story at the blog ZeroHedge. A new email released by WikiLeaks, it seems, shows the “playbook” for “rigging” polls. CONT. Philip Bump, Washington Post Read more »
What constitutes a good vs. bad Latino poll
During a webinar and telephonic briefing discussion hosted by NCLR yesterday, experts on political polling and Latino voters analyzed how the national exit polls and many polls throughout the election cycle consistently miss the mark when it comes to Latino voters – and discussed why that is problematic for good […] Read more »
No, one 19-year-old Trump supporter probably isn’t distorting the polling averages all by himself
… On Wednesday, the New York Times published an interesting piece that looked at how the USC/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll weights its sample. The article suggested that the weighting was the main factor in causing the Daybreak poll to be the only major survey that had showed Donald […] Read more »