Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and the Republican National Committee had one thing in common toward the end of this election season: They both predicted that the former Secretary of State would win between 300 and 350 Electoral College votes on Election Day. But according to data journalist and Wall Street […] Read more »
USC Dornsife/L.A. Times ‘outlier’ poll rings true as Donald Trump wins
Ever since the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll debuted in July, media observers have labeled it an “outlier”: Its results differed from those of other polls, regularly reporting positive numbers for Donald Trump. The poll, led by USC’s Arie Kapteyn and Jill Darling, has piqued interest and […] Read more »
Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as […] Read more »
5 Theories Of Why The Polls Failed So Hard
As Nov. 8 dawned, it all seemed so clear: National polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would prevail. Polls conducted at the state level, meanwhile, indicated that a “blue firewall” of Democratic-leaning states would comfortably propel her to victory in the electoral college. … But in states with close battles, where […] Read more »
How polls missed the presidential election so badly
Heading into Election Day, virtually all public polling — at the national and swing-state level — pointed to a relatively easy victory for Democrat Hillary Clinton. That, um, didn’t happen. In search of the “why” behind that poll fail, I contacted my longtime friend Jon Cohen. Jon was once the […] Read more »
US pollsters’ failure to forecast Trump victory is a ‘massive, historical, epic disaster’
The British academic who led an official review into how pollsters failed to forecast the result of the 2015 general election said their’ failure to predict Donald Trump’s clear victory is a “massive disaster” for the polling industry which is “high up the Richter scale”. CONT. Christopher Hope, The Telegraph Read more »