Leading up to the November election, AP worked with GfK Custom Research and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago to examine new ways to survey voters. One study, designed by NORC and funded by the Knight Foundation, explored the opportunities and challenges of using smartphones to […] Read more »
Political Pollsters Reflect On What Went Wrong In 2016
2016 was a year of failure for political polling in several Western democracies. France, Britain and the U.S. were all taken by surprise after polls underestimated the support for conservative presidential candidates and Brexit. Now, pollsters in all three countries are reflecting on what went wrong. All Things Considered, NPR Read more »
How pollsters could use social media data to improve election forecasts
Donald Trump’s Nov. 8 victory surprised almost everyone. But if pollsters had looked at Twitter, they might have recognized that the race was close — or so we learned in our recent research. Even when polls were showing a big lead for Hillary Clinton, real-time analysis of social media was […] Read more »
A modest proposal for better polls: Gallup and Fox News working together
… What if Fox were to collaborate with some politically neutral organization — say, Gallup — and do a joint poll, where they agree ahead of time on the questions and then they just start off the phone call with, “We’re calling from the Gallup Poll . . .” or “We’re calling […] Read more »
Why the polls missed in 2016: Was it shy Trump supporters after all?
Following the unexpected victory of Donald Trump, the American Association for Public Opinion Research announced, “The polls clearly got it wrong … and already the chorus of concerns about a ‘crisis in polling’ have emerged.” Many forecasts based on polls were indeed wrong, but a closer look leaves us more […] Read more »
The truth behind House Democrats’ 2016 polling
Though the results on Election Night up and down the ticket were ultimately different than the predictions from experts, pundits and analysts, a factual look back shows that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) internal polling clearly and accurately predicted the rise, fall, and ultimate landing for House Democratic candidates. […] Read more »