A new study from Pew Research Center suggests that, after decades of consistent decline, U.S. telephone survey response rates have plateaued over the past four years. And contrary to the current narrative that polls are under siege, the data show that the bias introduced into survey data by current levels […] Read more »
These recent elections show that polling isn’t, and never was, broken
Global financial markets and European Union leaders heaved a sigh of relief after the first round of the French presidential election last month. And so did professional pollsters. It turns out the polls were not broken in France, as they were said to have been in the American presidential election […] Read more »
Pollsters Find ‘At Best Mixed Evidence’ Comey Letter Swayed Election
FBI Director James Comey said this week that he is “mildly nauseous” at the idea that the FBI may have swayed the presidential election results. A new report may ease that nausea, if only a little. “We would conclude there is at best mixed evidence to suggest that the FBI […] Read more »
Q&A: Political polls and the 2016 election
The outcome of the 2016 presidential election surprised a lot of people – not least the many political pollsters and analysts covering it. Today the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the nation’s leading organization of survey researchers, released a long-awaited report that examines polling during last year’s long […] Read more »
An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S.
The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Pre-election polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency […] Read more »
Media Polling, M&A Polling and President Trump’s Ratings
At the time of this writing the “unbiased” and “non-partisan” media polls are claiming that President Trump has the “lowest” approval rating for any President this early in their tenure with a Real Clear Politics average of recent media polls of only 42% approve to 52% disapprove. However, unlike partisan […] Read more »