The 2017 election campaign has confounded expectations in many ways, none more so than Labour’s continuing surge in the opinion polls. From an average vote share of around 26% at the start of the campaign, they now stand at an average of 36% in the polls conducted over the past […] Read more »
UK election: The pollsters’ experimental election
… From the pollsters’ point of view this is an experimental election. We all got it wrong in 2015 and we are all trying different methods to get it right this year. … There are lots of differences between how different polling companies are doing their sums. Some poll online, […] Read more »
A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump
Nearly seven months after the presidential election, pollsters are still trying to answer a question that has rattled trust in their profession: Why did pre-election polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump in the battleground states that decided the presidency? Is political polling fundamentally broken? Or were the errors […] Read more »
Are UK pollsters headed for another embarrassing election?
Will Jennings, University of Southampton and Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton Following the political surprises of 2015 and 2016, there has been much reflection and debate on the accuracy of the polls in the run-up to the impending snap-election of 2017. It is fair to say that, although perhaps somewhat […] Read more »
The more a poll mentions Republicans, the less popular the party’s health care bill
It’s clear enough that the American Health Care Act, the Republican bill that would overhaul Obamacare that passed the House earlier this month, isn’t very popular. It’s unpopular enough, for example, that a candidate for the House in Montana would rather face criminal charges than answer a question about it. […] Read more »
Support for health care law higher when polls mention ‘repeal’
With the U.S. Senate set to take up debate on a new health care bill, Cornell researchers asked a simple question. Does the American public want former President Barack Obama’s health care law repealed and replaced? The answer is, it depends on how you ask the question. CONT. Susan Kelley, […] Read more »