… In a perfect world, polls sample from the population of voters, who would state their political preference perfectly clearly and then vote accordingly. However, results from small random samples can be quite unreliable due to extremely narrow electoral margins. To calculate the probability of winning the 2016 US presidential […] Read more »
Generic ballot measures, party candidate recruitment and the coming 2018 wave
With a series of survey results showing that Democrats have an enormous lead over Republicans in the 2018 election for control of the House of Representatives, it’s worth asking what these generic ballot items really mean, and how well they predict what’s actually going to happen in November. CONT. Dan […] Read more »
Poll Hub: The gig economy and the future of work in the United States
The American workforce is undergoing a profound change. According to the latest NPR/Marist Poll of the future of work, one in five American workers are contract workers. Who are they, and what kind of an impact do they have on the labor force? Poll Hub has the answers. CONT. Marist […] Read more »
10th Annual Top Ten Dubious Polling Awards
Editor’s note: Every January, iMediaEthics’ polling director David W. Moore assembles the top ten “Dubious Polling Awards” for iMediaEthics. The tongue-in-cheek awards “honor” the previous year’s most questionable actions in media polling news. CONT. David W. Moore, iMediaEthics Read more »
Poll Hub: Triumph or Trumped?
… Despite a year marked by a job approval rating hovering in the thirties and a majority of Americans rating Trump’s presidency as a “failure,” there are some bright spots for the president. What are they, and what impact could President Trump’s job approval rating have on the 2018 midterm […] Read more »
Still Listening: The State of Telephone Surveys
Since the late 1980s, telephone surveys have been Gallup’s primary data collection method for surveying U.S. adults. The survey research field — and the way people communicate — has changed a lot since then. Today researchers have a wide range of methodological options available to them in addition to telephone […] Read more »