There is a new CNN poll out today with approval at 35, disapproval at 58. That may seem a surprise with polling averages at 43 (HuffPo) and 42 (RCP) or 39.4 (538) or 44 (me, sort of). It’s not. And it raises an issue. Let me elaborate. CONT. Charles Franklin, […] Read more »
Do Trump’s ‘Approval’ Numbers Tell Us About Him, or About Us?
… What does it mean, exactly, to “approve” of a president? Does it mean you like Trump enough that, if there were an election tomorrow, you would vote for him? Does it mean that you like him personally? Or does it mean that you don’t like him personally but think […] Read more »
Commercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. Politics
… Over the last decade, commercial voter files have become central to the conduct of contemporary election campaigns and are frequently employed by pollsters, journalists and political analysts trying to understand the American electorate. As part of a broader effort at Pew Research Center to shed light on this important […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Is Truth Overrated? Is Lying the New American Way?
In this episode of Poll Hub, truth. Based on results from the Exclusive Third Rail with OZY-Marist Poll, the Poll Hub team discusses whether or not honesty is alive and well in American society. CONT. Marist Poll Read more »
Assessing and Improving Interview Quality in the 2016/17 AmericasBarometer
Recent methodological advances have enabled researchers to identify likely data falsification and fabrication in survey datasets (e.g., Kuriakose and Robbins 2016). However, survey researchers have historically been unable to identify and stop data fabrication from occurring in real-time, or to provide additional support and training to interviewers who need it […] Read more »
Can We Trust Polls?
Polls show that most Americans don’t believe polls. … Trustworthy or not, polls are everywhere. They make for click-friendly headlines and they add a feeling of statistical heft to arguments. … We’ll convene a panel of experts to look at poll methodology, the use of polls in journalism and whether or […] Read more »