Back in late 2016, following a year of political upsets, I argued here that political polling and forecasting wasn’t dead but needed to adapt. Fast forward a little over a year, and change is already apparent. CONT. Matt Singh, Bloomberg View Read more »
Data and Messaging around Race and Education
There are two separate issues covered in Thomas Edsall’s Thursday, March 30, 2018 article in the New York Times. First, exit polls have problems with race and education. Certainty true, but not exactly as the author describes. Second, Democrats have problems messaging race and education. Certainty true, but not exactly […] Read more »
The 2016 Exit Polls Led Us to Misinterpret the 2016 Election
Crucial disputes over Democratic strategy concerning economic distribution, race and immigration have in large part been based on Election Day exit polls that now appear to have been inaccurate in key ways. According to subsequent studies, those polls substantially underestimated the number of Democratic white working-class voters — many of […] Read more »
Announcing Civiqs: the coolest thing I’ve helped build since Daily Kos
Hey everyone, remember how polling sucks and you can’t trust it anymore because no one answers polls these days and you have a plethora of sketchy outfits spitting out garbage numbers? Back in late 2012, Dr. Drew Linzer—one of the top political statisticians in the country—and I chatted about the […] Read more »
The Founder Of Daily Kos Just Launched A Massive New Polling Project
Markos Moulitsas is a singular success story of the new media business. After the Army and college, he founded the original, ultimate liberal group blog, Daily Kos in 2002, which has survived all competitors and is now basically the last of its kind. He co-founded the sports site SBNation in […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Talkin’ Trump & Tackling the Trash Talk
The latest Marist Poll has President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 42%, his highest approval rating since taking office. In this week’s edition of Poll Hub, the crew provides an in-depth look at the factors driving the president’s improved standing and responds to the critiques of the poll’s methodology. Plus, […] Read more »