Minnesota’s Eighth District is one of a handful of Democratic-held House seats where Republicans have a realistic shot to win in the midterms in three weeks. The incumbent, Rick Nolan, is retiring, and he won by only one percentage point in 2016 in a district President Trump carried by 15. […] Read more »
What pollsters get wrong – and right
What are we to make of modern polling? There are a lot of negative takes that one commonly encounters. Many people are skeptical that polls accurately measure public sentiment, pointing to their failure to predict Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. … Anthony Salvanto, the director of elections and surveys at […] Read more »
Comparing Survey Sampling Strategies: Random-Digit Dial vs. Voter Files
A new telephone survey experiment finds that, despite major structural differences, an opinion poll drawn from a commercial voter file can produce results similar to those from a sample based on random-digit-dialing (RDD). The study intentionally pushed the boundaries of current polling practices by employing a voter file and a […] Read more »
Election 2018: Nevada, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
Nevada, Minnesota, and Wisconsin – three states that will be critical during this year’s midterm elections. On this week’s Poll Hub, the team goes behind the numbers of the latest NBC News/Marist Polls of Nevada, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Among which groups is enthusiasm for the midterm elections strongest? Where do […] Read more »
When questions don’t mean what they say
Polling is seductive. (Polling, not pollsters.) You ask questions, get answers and turn those answers into numbers. Some people put decimal points next to those numbers to make you think they’re dealing with physics. Everyone just assumes that the answers are meaningful. Often, they aren’t. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), […] Read more »
Poll Hub: The Impact of Brett Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Hearings on the 2018 Midterm Elections
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll has been closely tracking Americans’ opinions of the testimonies of Judge Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford. But, beyond the sexual harassment allegations and the FBI investigation, are there implications for the midterm elections? CONT. Marist Poll Read more »