… For more than a quarter-century, no matter which channel you were watching, much of that punditry ultimately derived from the same source: a nationwide survey of voters as they left their local polling places. … But on election night 2018, there will be an additional source of data on […] Read more »
What Happened Next Tuesday: A New Way To Understand Election Results
When the polls close on the midterm elections this coming Tuesday night, the country will turn its temporary attention towards understanding what happened. The winning and losing candidates will likely be clear. However, the “how” a candidate won, or the “why” a candidate lost will not be. Analysts and pundits […] Read more »
Can voters tell us whether they’ll turn out?
It’s that point in the cycle when everyone lowers their voice, along with their head, and knowingly suggests, “It’s all about turnout.” Leaving aside the veracity of the statement itself, it certainly puts pressure on pollsters to correctly predict the likely electorate. Many employ straightforward questions to ascertain whether an […] Read more »
No One Really Knows What Americans Think About Abortion
… Abortion is such a complex and sensitive issue that few polls accurately capture how Americans really feel about abortion, but many easily manipulate the answers to support their cause. BuzzFeed News analyzed 14 polls on the public’s opinion on abortion from the past four years conducted by a range […] Read more »
What I learned from The New York Times
When The New York Times’s Upshot announced it was “live polling” this year’s hottest races, I wasn’t a fan. But my worst fears weren’t realized and I learned some things watching the interviews roll in. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
Ask the Expert: Polling the 2018 Elections
As the 2018 elections approach, polling finds itself in the spotlight once again and the glare is harsh. Facing the growing problems that confront all of survey research as well as public skepticism about polling that followed the 2016 presidential election, polling practitioners have examined their methods and many have […] Read more »