Beware: Reading polls can be hazardous to your health. Symptoms include cherry-picking, overconfidence, falling for junky numbers and rushing to judgment. Thankfully, we have a cure. Building on an old checklist from former FiveThirtyEight political writer Harry Enten, here are some guidelines you should bear in mind when you’re interpreting […] Read more »
Perils of Polling: Does Kamala Really Lead Joe?
Fans of U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris rejoiced last week when the well-known Quinnipiac University Poll found her leading former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in California. They don’t seem to be touting the result much, however — maybe because the survey also found […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Setting Standards
On this week’s episode of our podcast, Poll Hub, Jennifer Agiesta, Director of Polling and Election Analytics for CNN, joins the team! Agiesta outlines CNN’s new requirements that polls need to meet in order to receive coverage at the network. What’s changed? What hasn’t? What kinds of polls just don’t […] Read more »
These Are the Mistakes Democrats Don’t Want to Repeat in 2020
… “We have created an electorate full of pundits and strategists, and the result is that we’re puzzling through not who we like but who we imagine someone else will like,” said Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii. “It’s a fool’s errand to imagine who will be appealing to someone […] Read more »
‘Your Survey is Biased’: A Preliminary Investigation into Respondent Perceptions of Survey Bias
Collecting survey data has become more resource-intensive as response rates have declined. Contemporaneous to the decline in response rates has been a growing distrust in science among the general public in nations such as the United States. The authors suggest that this decline in trust has implications for survey data […] Read more »
Why the ABC/WP Democratic Primary Poll Is an Outlier
After the second Democratic debate, several media organizations took polls to see how the candidates were faring. They all conducted their polls in the time frame of June 28-July 1. Three polls – ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, and CNN – interviewed Democrats and independents leaning Democratic across the country. USA Today/Suffolk […] Read more »