While survey research in the United States is a year-round undertaking, the public’s focus on polling is never more intense than during the run-up to a presidential election. This essay is our attempt as survey methodologists and social science researchers to assess the state of the craft in 2019. “Can […] Read more »
About Buttigieg … And That Iowa Poll
The latest Des Moines Register poll was released this weekend, and it shows South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew digs into this poll and discusses […] Read more »
The difference between good and bad state polls, explained
A poll released Tuesday conducted by the broadly respected Atlanta Journal-Constitution offered the surprising finding that 54 percent of voters in Georgia support the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, with voters split 47-47 so far on the question of actual removal. … The bad news for optimistic Democrats is […] Read more »
The State Of The Polls, 2019
Much maligned for their performance in the 2016 general election — and somewhat unfairly so, since the overall accuracy of the polls was only slightly below average that year by historical standards — American election polls have been quite accurate since then. … Does that mean everything is looking up […] Read more »
When it comes to polls, mode matters
… Until recently, what physicians call “heroic measures” — high risk therapies, undertaken as a last resort, with the understanding that anything less would surely result in failure — were sufficient to produce accurate polls. That’s changing though as low response rates now combine with radically different “telephone” habits. CONT. […] Read more »
The complex considerations undergirding 2020 polling
About two weeks before Election Day 2016, the New York Times tweeted its most recent forecast for the outcome of the presidential election. Hillary Clinton had a 93 percent chance of winning, the forecast suggested, leaving Donald Trump a less than 1-in-10 chance of success. … That election was certainly […] Read more »