On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, it’s almost 2020. So, why are some people still focusing on 2016 pre-election polls? We pick up that question. And, lawmakers are seeking to curb those irritating robocalls. But, could survey research be impacted? We explain. Marist Poll Read more »
How not to interpret opinion polls
General election campaigns provoke a lot of attention and criticism of opinion polls. Some of that is sensible and well-informed… and some of it is not. This is about the latter – a response to some of the more common criticisms that I see on social media. Polling methodology is […] Read more »
How do pollsters predict UK general election results?
FT data journalist John Burn-Murdoch explains how researchers such as YouGov use MRP, or multi-level regression post-stratification polling, as the best way of showing how big national polls translate at the local level – and to predict who will win the most seats. Financial Times Read more »
Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020
Meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research tend to be pretty staid affairs. But when members of the group gathered for a conference call at this time in 2016, the polling industry was experiencing a crisis of confidence. Donald J. Trump had swept most of the Midwest to […] Read more »
Failing to Decipher Black Voters
… I believe deeply that much of the Democratic field is still struggling — and failing — to decipher what animates the bulk of black voters. As much as I believe in polling and its ability to uncover information, I don’t believe that the way black people are polled is […] Read more »
PolitiFact’s guide to understanding public opinion polls
As the 2020 election pushes ahead, voters will be seeing poll results in their news feed — lots of them. But not all polls are created equal, and it can be hard to put the results into the proper context. PolitiFact participated in a workshop hosted by the Poynter Institute […] Read more »