As we enter a new decade, it may be useful (or at least interesting) to reflect on the major changes in polling during the past decade. The polling industry, especially that part of the industry that involves national polls conducted for news media consumption, is undergoing a major transition – […] Read more »
Trump May Be Even More Unpopular Than His Approval Rating Shows
Polls have consistently shown that President Trump is pretty unpopular, with only about 42 percent of the American public approving of the job he is doing as president. These numbers are much lower than what one might expect given the bustling economy. But does the standard presidential approval question actually […] Read more »
The Science Of Polling In 2020 And Beyond
The Iowa caucus is less than three weeks away and polls this week show that Vice President Joe Biden has a six point lead over other primary challengers in the Democratic race. Six days ago, a different poll had Senator Bernie Sanders up by three points in Iowa, and at […] Read more »
Recent Poll May Be Underestimating Bernie Sanders’s Strength in Iowa
Two of the nation’s best pollsters have recently weighed in on the state of the Iowa Democratic race, with very different results. One subtle methodological choice might explain part of the difference, and on balance there is reason to think Bernie Sanders might be a bit stronger in one of […] Read more »
Is it true that “Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate” and that this “skews the results”?
Someone pointed me to this post in the Monkey Cage, a political science blog that I participate in. The post was about non-representativeness of political polls, and it had one good point and one bad point. Overall I think the claims in the post were overstated. CONT. Andrew Gelman (Columbia […] Read more »
Would Booker and Castro be in tonight’s debate if polls counted people of color accurately?
Donald Trump’s presidency has pushed a variety of groups — including blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans and Native Americans — to become more politically engaged, spurring giant protests and record voter turnout in the 2018 midterms. At the same time, the proportion of the population that is not white continues to […] Read more »